A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
The momagri model was designed to better report on the reality of
agricultural market operations, since it was observed that most “standard”
models used in international arenas are inadequate to assess the
consequences of the unfettered regulation of agricultural markets.

In fact, these models do not make allowances for agriculture’s own specific nature, which requires appropriate modelization (microstructure of flawed markets as well as hazards of nature or market risks), and do not consider strategic fields such as innovation, environment or finance.

The first results achieved were presented at a March 2008 press conference at the European Parliament. The momagri model was also presented to the international scientific community during a workshop held in Paris in June 2009 and focusing of “Uncertainty and volatility of agricultural commodity prices”.

The goals of the momagri model

To download the presentation
“Agricultural Markets Volatility: A Threat to Global Food Security”

These goals include: 

• A better understanding of the performance of international agricultural markets:
• A better assessment of agricultural market exposure to the hazards of nature and market risks;
• A better perception of the interactions between agriculture and other key issues (environment, innovation and poverty);
• A better appreciation of the consequences of economic policies at the global and regional levels in terms of GNP, prices, produced and traded volumes as well as sales;
• A modelization of the financialization of agriculture (short-term investors in commodity markets).

First results and Findings

What can we learn from the first simulations?

• The volatility of agricultural prices sharply rises when one leans towards global unfettered liberalization;
• A succession of Price turnarounds will occur in the short term, especially concerning grains;
• The increase of speculative trends in commodity markets significantly magnifies price volatility.
The momagri model is an international, computable
general equilibrium model. Based on a modular and
interactive configuration, it encompasses 10
geographical zones, 20 economic sectors--11 of which
concerning agriculture and agribusiness--translating
into over 25,000.
It conceptualizes, for the first time ever, the main
specific characteristics of agriculture, especially the
natural hazards and market risks experienced by farmers.
The momagri model is the only model that foresaw a possible price turnaround of agricultural prices (in grains) as early as March 2008.

It represents an indispensable forecasting tool for national and international decision-makers.

momagri model

Paris, 24 May 2019