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Africa and Europe: Partnerships for Agricultural Development
An African Green Revolution,
By the “panel Montpellier” experts
1
Over the past two decades there has been too much emphasis on short term measures towards humanitarian food aid rather than on overcoming the barriers to agricultural development. One consequence is that average African cereal yields remain at little over 1 tonne per hectare.
Two thirds of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is rural, and the approximately 33 million small farms (less than 2 ha) make up 80% of all farms and supply up to 90% of agricultural production in some countries. Although urban migration is proceeding rapidly, by 2030 the population is still projected to be about 52% rural. While some large land holdings will be acquired by Middle East and Asian investors and farmed at an industrialised scale on the Brazilian model, agricultural development for some time to come will continue to depend on small holder agriculture.
There is growing optimism, however, that Sub-Saharan Africa can achieve its much anticipated Green Revolution.
Food security is a key intermediary outcome in the development process. Very few countries have experienced rapid economic growth without preceding or accompanying growth in agriculture. This is not because agriculture has a capacity for very fast growth but because of its size. In Sub-Saharan Africa the agricultural sector accounts for over 80% of the labour force and 50% of the GDP. Experience has shown that even modest rates of growth have a considerable multiplier effect, increasing rural incomes which in turn create consumer demand and hence growth in the non-agricultural sector. The experience of Asia shows that for each 1% acceleration in agricultural growth there is about a 1.5% acceleration in non-agricultural growth.
An increase in overall GDP coming from agricultural labour productivity is on average 2.9 times more effective in raising the incomes of the poorest quintile in developing countries … than an equivalent increase in GDP coming from nonagricultural labour productivity. In effect there is a virtuous circle that hinges on agricultural development.
In addition to these benefits, vigorous agricultural growth can stimulate world trade, providing significant benefits for all countries, developed and developing.
As the developing countries prosper, they import more - a $1 increase in their agricultural growth was estimated in 1995 to lead to an increase in the value of their imports of $0.73. This means also greater prosperity for the developed countries.
How do we achieve this virtuous circle? Some have argued that what we need is a repeat of the Green Revolution – a search for new technologies similar to those of the semi-dwarf cereal varieties that will deliver a quantum leap in yields and production. For a number of reasons this is unlikely to be an effective strategy.
The environments that were ideal for the Green Revolution varieties are already fully exploited. The poor and hungry live today in very different circumstances.
The challenge today in Sub-Saharan Africa is to develop interventions that will deliver for relatively small farmers in more diverse, poorly endowed, risk-prone environments.
The technologies of the first Green Revolution were developed on experiment stations that were favoured with fertile soils, well-controlled water sources, and other factors suitable for high production. There was little perception of the complexity and diversity of farmers’ physical environments and farming systems, let alone the diversity of the economic and social environment.
By contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa requires a variety of locally adapted interventions targeted on specific needs. It will take a combination of appropriate technologies and economic, social and institutional investments, involving both the public and the private sector. Examples of recent successes include:
- Cassava production in West Africa. 40% of the world’s production comes from Africa and recently Nigeria surpassed Brazil as the world’s leading producer. Cassava now provides Africa’s second most important calorie source; one third of all Africans consume cassava as a food staple.
- The Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has funded 60 crop breeding programs; introduced 125 new crop varieties into the field; provided start-up capital for 35 African seed enterprises (that have collectively produced approximately 15,000 MT of certified seed), and enlisted 9,200 agro-dealers who have provided smallholder farmers with $45 million worth of seed and farm inputs.
- The new rices for Africa (NERICAs) are transforming West Africa, benefitting 20 million mostly women farmers and helping reduce high rice import bills. Rice now contributes more calories and protein than any other cereal in humid West Africa, and about the same as all roots and tubers combined.
These successes and others throughout the continent are a reflection of a new and growing commitment by African leaders to agricultural development and combating hunger.
Members of the African Union made a commitment in Maputo in 2003 to increase resources for agriculture and rural development to at least 10% of national budgets within 5 years.
At the summit, leaders also adopted the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) as a framework for accelerating agricultural development and food security on the continent. After a slow start, over the last year there has been significant progress on national implementation of CAADP with 22 national governments signing compacts that commit to specific agricultural plans and investments.
There has been significant economic progress in Africa in recent years. In Sub-Saharan Africa average annual growth in GDP has been over 5% for the period 2000-2008, and in agriculture has been over 3%. These averages hide considerable variation (from Nigeria at 7% agricultural growth to Zimbabwe at minus 8.5%).
Nevertheless the combination of higher agricultural growth and agricultural prices are creating opportunities in domestic, regional and international markets, especially where there are supportive, stable governments.
A recent McKinsey report has suggested that if Africa could raise yields on key crops it could increase the value of its agricultural production by $235 billion over the next two decades. Coupled to this, if Africa could shift a proportion of cultivation to higher value crops such as fruit and vegetables, they would benefit from a further $140 billion annually by 2030.
In summary, we are in ‘a period of optimism’ about the prospects for Africa and African agriculture.
1 Sir Gordon Conway, Tom Arnold, Henri Carsalade, Louise Fresco, Peter Hazell, Namanga Ngongi, Prabhu Pingali, Joachim von Braun, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Ramadjita Tabo, David Radcliffe.
2 http://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/africanagriculturaldevelopment/Public/Final%20Panel%20Report.pdf |
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Advocating for
agricultural market
regulation and global
food governance | |
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