A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

Upward forecast for 2013/2014 global grain output

April 1st, 2013


The latest forecast from the International Grains Council (IGC) indicates that the 2013/2014 global grain output should increase by four percent for wheat, nine percent for corn and six percent for barley, due to an increase in acreage and a recovery in average yields. According to the latest FAO estimates, the European Union should post its best wheat crop in five years, and produce 138 million tons––one fifth of total production.

Yet, the current situation still seems unstable. For example, while corn reserves should recover in 2013 (a 19 percent increase), they show their lowest level for the past 16 years. More globally, current FAO predictions show that the grain stock/use ratio reached 20.7 percent in 2012/2013, i.e. less 23 percent than in 2011/2012. Consequently, Egypt just announced the purchase of 4.5 million tons of wheat from its farmers to rebuild the strategic reserves that are beginning to dry up dangerously. In addition, the IGC or FAO results might not be enough to support markets. To confirm these trends, we must wait for not only the late spring, but also pass this summer’s heat shriveling.

Above all, these optimistic figures do not prove anything. At the same period last year, global prices were nearly identical to current prices, and yet rose by 40 percent six months later (record drought United States and drought in Russia).

Beyond the permanent threat of climate hazards, agricultural markets have become complex anticipatory markets, in which players’ mindset is as important as hyper-volatility. Furthermore, short-term views proved to be ineffective, when global agricultural markets are not immune to a sharp price reversal.

Notwithstanding upward projections, and due to the unpredictability and opacity of global agricultural markets, it is now urgent to implement measures to control excessive price swings, and thus provide greater transparency on reserves and production levels, supervise speculation in financial markets, and encourage increase cooperation between the world’s major producers…
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Paris, 13 December 2018