A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

Upcoming turmoil in the global corn market?

05 Septembre 2011

The volatility of global corn prices should increase in 2012 on a bullish trend, as indicated by the recently scaled down U.S. production estimates and the recorded key players’ transactions in international trade.

In fact, the new U.S. estimates are showing that the corn harvest forecast for 2012 might be even lower than the official evaluations issued during the summer.

Given that the U.S. is the world’s first exporter with a 50 percent market share, and that corn plays a strategic role in food diets, we should register some upward pressure on corn prices for the 2012 crop.

The announcement should destabilize somewhat further the global corn market, since even though Russia and Ukraine decided to not only end their grain embargo but also strive to become key players in the global market––Ukraine thus turning out as the world’s third corn exporter ahead of Brazil in 2011––there is absolutely no evidence that one will offset the other…

However, this increased volatility might spread to other upstream agricultural markets, such as beef, sheep, hog or poultry, for which corn is an essential intermediate consumption. By doing so, such volatility would contribute to higher food costs that could prove difficult for developing countries. The occurrence and development of social unrest could then follow, leading central banks to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

To prevent the occurrence of such a disaster scenario, it is crucial to closely monitor forthcoming developments and new estimates from key global exporters, so that pertinent regulation measures can be initiated as far upstream as possible.

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Paris, 24 April 2019