A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

The only certainty in agriculture is uncertainty

November 17, 2014

Recent figures from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) expose the extreme volatility in the UK agricultural market and an inability to calculate future fluctuations.

From January 2013 to February 2014, farm business income fell for grain, crops and livestock; but increased for milk, pork and poultry. However, these statistics must be handled carefully because, as the National Farmers Union (NFU) pointed out), they have evolved considerably since the publication of the data in February, revealing the extreme volatility of these markets. Thus, grain prices fell by 30% compared to the same period in 2013. For the dairy market, if 2013-2014 was – in relative terms – a good year, the situation was reversed during a six month period with a drop in farm milk prices between 20 and 30%.

Indeed, price visibility is not about to improve for producers because of dangerous speculation and increasing market interconnection, agricultural or not, which increases uncertainty and exposes the future of agriculture and agricultural trade to even more risk.

Furthermore, even though the average volatility of agricultural prices has declined since the early 2000s, at the same time, its structure has mutated; extreme events have multiplied with increased amplitude. Agricultural markets are increasingly more volatile and turbulent, generating uncertainty for farmers, potentially harmful for investment, competitiveness and farm profitability.

The effective and efficient long-term management of agricultural price volatility has, therefore, become an essential condition for farm and State performance and competitiveness. The EU’s reinforcement of decoupled payments as a pillar for support mechanisms with the recent CAP reform entered into in 2014, has however failed to follow this route.

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Paris, 24 June 2019