The eternal Doha revival

Is it still possible to revive the Doha Round? This is in any event what Pascal Lamy, Director General of the WTO is hoping for. His proposal for considering a multi-speed cycle to adopt a partial agreement in December was accepted by the ambassadors of member countries who were reunited in Geneva on 31st May.

If this is the necessary approach, negotiations will take place in three stages. A “fast lane” for discussions on pressing issues for the least developed countries (LDCs), such as rules of origin or cotton. A “slow lane” for the most sensitive issues, such as access to non-agricultural markets, agriculture and services or intellectual property rights. And finally, a “middle lane” whose content remains to be defined.

Separate the issues for more progress? If this manoeuvre is contrary to the logic that prevailed until recently, praised by Pascal Lamy insofar as the various issues are interrelated, nobody will be blamed for doubting the success of this umpteenth attempt to revive a cycle that has been broken-down for several years.

To conclude Doha would certainly constitute a strong political signal sent to the entire international community to boost cooperation and reject protectionism. However, the economic and strategic implications are much more uncertain. Some studies, such as those conducted by momagri and Tufts University, clearly demonstrate that the volatility of agricultural prices would be exacerbated, not to mention the negative impact on food security or the rise in speculation that it could lead to.

So rather than trying too hard to revive a cycle from a coma that nobody really wants it to come out of, in the light of recent events, it might be time to redefine the WTO mandate as defined in the reform on global governance initiated by the G20.