A new vision for agriculture
momagri, movement for a world agricultural organization, is a think tank chaired by Christian Pèes.
It brings together, managers from the agricultural world and important people from external perspectives,
such as health, development, strategy and defense. Its objective is to promote regulation
of agricultural markets by creating new evaluation tools, such as economic models and indicators,
and by drawing up proposals for an agricultural and international food policy.
A look at the news

The FAO and OECD review their outlook for
the 2013-2022 global agricultural output

June 17, 2013


The OECD and the FAO recently published a joint review of the global agricultural output by 2022. The two organizations indicate that a slowdown in global agricultural production growth is to be expected. It “should increase by an average of 1.5 percent annually during the coming decade, against 2.1 percent for the 2003-2012 years.” According to the OECD, “the outlook for global agriculture is relatively good due to an upward trend of demand and trade as well as high prices. Yet, this positive outlook is subject to continued economic recovery.”

For the report, the increasing limitations of resources, the lack of additional farmland and rising production costs are the chief causes to explain the slower growth in a context controlled by production deficits, price volatility and trade unrest that end up threatening global food security.

This is not about fully presenting the report’s conclusions on the agricultural outlook by 2022, but learning from its findings. An obvious observation is therefore that, in spite the global agricultural realities covered in the report––price volatility and agriculture’s reliance on markets––the only certainty concerns the intrinsic volatility of agricultural markets, while the forecasting ability of predictions must be used with caution.

Consequently, whether prices are up or down, the main questions involve the scope of variations, or still their long-term trends. In addition, high prices do not provide an incentive for farming production, because farmers are not motivated only by prices but by the prospects for margins and variations in production costs.

Both the FAO and the OECD have included the agricultural trade volatility and its negative impact on food security. The challenge is therefore to translate words into action and take the issue one step further: Why are agricultural incomes and prices so unstable and volatile? Why existing models do not reflect such volatility and instability? Which public strategies must we adopt to confront price hyper-volatility and global market instability?

The momagri model responds to these questions, which were until then unanswered, through modeling of the various types of natural or trade risks facing agricultural markets in a context of growing uncertainty.
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Paris, 18 December 2018