2009 : a dull year according to agri-food transformers

Leaving aside the wine markets or non-food evaluations, first semester 2009 forecasts are generally quite pessimistic. According to an analysis conducted by Agrapresse, processing, picking or storage companies in most of the agricultural sectors (cereals, oil proteins, meat products, milk and fruit and vegetables) anticipate lasting price decreases, following the economic environment turnaround already observed at the end of 2008. Whereas according to INSEE agricultural prices receded by nearly 12% between November 2007 and November 2008, professionals in the agricultural world expect the worst to come in the next six months.

The first reason put forward is the production hike brought about by rocketing prices and the global economic crisis context which causes a consumption contraction. Regarding this particularly tight situation industry is trying to adjust agricultural product prices downwards as has been the case in the dairy sector which made the situation worse.

But let’s not forget that these forecasts, however pessimistic they may be, have already been observed many times in the past. Agricultural prices are characterised by the structural hyper-volatility of prices which the current economic crisis has amplified. And we could fear, if agricultural policies were not put in place, that this situation severely and durably destabilises the French and European agricultural sector.