Mouvement pour une Organisation Mondiale de l'Agriculture
momagri est un think tank présidé par Christian Pèes,  qui rassemble des responsables du monde agricole
et des personnalités d’horizons extérieurs (santé, développement, stratégie et défense,…).
Son objectif est de promouvoir une régulation des marchés agricoles en créant de nouveaux outils d’évaluation
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agricole et alimentaire internationale.
Articles

Les conséquences de la sortie de la Grande-Bretagne de l’Union européenne sur l’agriculture britannique



LEI Wageningen Institute pour le NFU, principal syndicat britannique



Un récent rapport du principal syndicat agricole britannique, le NFU, a fait grand bruit à l’approche du réferendum qui devrait se tenir le 23 juin prochain. Dans cette étude d’impact commandée par le syndicat à un institut de recherche agricole de l’Université néerlandaise de Wageningen (le LEI), les auteurs ont examiné les conséquences de la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l’Union européenne.

Dans un extrait de l’étude que nous reproduisons ici
1, les auteurs présentent les principales conséquences selon différentes scénarios de protections aux frontières et de soutien direct que les Britanniques pourraient adopter. En cas de libéralisation totale, les prix et les productions chuteraient fortement, y compris pour la production de mouton qui deviendrait déficitaire. En revanche si il y avait un accord de libre échange avec l’UE ou seulement du respect des engagements à l’OMC du Royaume-Uni, les prix agricoles devraient globalement augmenter vu le faible degré d’autosuffisance. Cette hausse ne compenserait pas pour autant la baisse de revenu qui résulterait d’une suppression des aides directes de la PAC. Le rapport rappelle en effet qu’aujourd’hui, les aides directes représentent 2/3 des revenus agricoles et que l’ensemble des exploitations d’élevage aurait des revenus négatifs sans aides directes.

Pour Sir Peter Kendall, ancient president du NFU, l’étude menée par le LEI n’est finalement que la preuve supplémentaire que les agriculteurs britanniques doivent rester au sein de l’UE
2. Elle confirme en effet qu’en dépit des discours tapageurs et des positions hostiles à l’égard de la PAC de la plupart des représentants politiques outre Manche, les agriculteurs du Royaume-Uni bénéficient de la PAC.


La rédaction de momagri



Three trade and agricultural policy scenarios on UK agriculture have been designed to estimate possible effects on the UK agricultural sector of a Brexit. Price effects are caused by the introduction of trade facilitation costs, which effectively result in higher farm gate prices as the UK is an net-importing country for most agricultural products. In addition, the UK will lose access to EU’s preferential imports which has a similar price increasing effect.

The agricultural product prices are projected to increase in the FTA and WTO scenarios. These price increases have a positive impact on supply and farm revenue and income, but have a negative impact on domestic use and consumer (or user) expenditure. At the level of the society this implies a loss of consumer welfare.

A UK Trade Liberalisation scenario significantly impacts on UK meat and dairy prices as current import tariff rates are higher for these products. Consequently, the overall effect of the Trade Liberalisation scenario is a price decline for animal products which leads to less meat and milk production in the UK.

Due to lower levels of production in the livestock sector, less feed use will lead to an increase in the UK’s net export position on barley and an improvement of UK’s net-import position on (soft) wheat.

Due to less production and higher domestic use, the UK’s net imports will increase for beef, poultry, butter and milk powder, whereas the trade balance for sheep meat will turn from positive into negative. The deterioration of the UK’s net trade position is largely due to higher imports of a number of livestock products mainly coming from outside the EU due to the significant price difference between the EU and the UK. As a matter of fact, UK prices for these products will tend to be lower than in the EU, making it difficult for the EU to be a competitive exporter to the UK.

The UK currently contributes an estimated €7.9bn to the CAP budget, from which its farmers receive €3.8bn. A Brexit would save the UK budget expenditure on agriculture: the declines in budget expenditure vary from €4.1bn (-52%) to €7.3bn (-93%), depending on whether the UK’s new agricultural policy will maintain 100% direct income payment, reduces payments by 50% or abolishes them.

Being member of the EU implies the UK is part of a large EU market on which trade occurs at relatively low transaction costs. A Brexit would cause trade costs to increase. Comparing the impacts on trade of the different scenarios simulated in this research the FTA and WTO scenarios show a kind of anti-trade bias, as they add to transaction costs in trade, and - in case of the WTO scenario – imply a loss of benefits from cheap imports under the EU’s preferential trade arrangements. In the Trade Liberalisation scenario, the reduction in the external import tariff levels assumed leads to declining prices, less production and more imports of a number of products, and as such to more openness to trade.


Farm income results

Price changes due to Brexit have a positive impact on farm incomes in all sectors under the FTA and WTO default scenario. In case of a UK Trade Liberalisation scenario, the livestock sector will face price declines, and subsequently its income is negatively affected.

The positive price impacts on farm incomes in the FTA and WTO default scenario will be offset by the loss of direct payments, in case these trade scenarios are combined with reduced agricultural support.

A reduction of direct payments or their complete elimination further aggravates farmers’ income effects under the UK Trade Liberalisation scenario.

In case of the abolition of direct payments a large share of farms will have negative income effects.


Consequently, the viability of a substantial share (15-25%, depending on the scenario) of farms will be negatively affected by this policy change.

Livestock sectors in particular are heavily dependent on direct income payments: 2012/2013 FADN data indicate that without these payments their income would be negative. Also mixed farms and field crop farms greatly rely on direct payments for their income. Overall, two-third of the UK’s farm income relies on direct payment support.

All UK regions would show on average a decline in farm incomes in case the UK government fully abolished the direct payments. A 50% reduction of subsidies shows more diverse results with better results under the WTO default scenario than under the FTA scenario.

Again the UK TL scenario shows the most significant changes. Farm incomes decline in all regions, except for England-East where half of the UK horticultural farms are located and which are little affected by the reduction of direct income payments. Farm incomes are most severely affected in Scotland


1 Retrouvez l’intégralité de l’étude en suivant ce lien
http://www.nfuonline.com/assets/61142?u=dk7s6b5wJsFnEBWgHvtgPQ

2 http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/eu-referendum-campaigners-clash-over-nfu-brexit-report.htm


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Paris, le vendredi 17 novembre 2017